Come 2016, Donald Trump May Emerge America's President.

You and I know that politicians lie, but bettors have a habit of ferreting out the truth. And this is why my article this morning noted that it would be harder for politicians to evade the fund-raising limits that apply to candidates if we relied on prediction markets rather than lawyers to assess whether a politician was running for office.

It turns out that a small prediction market has been running precisely the sort of markets required

to figure out if a politician is really a candidate. For instance, there’s a contract on the PredictIt online exchange that pays $1 if Jeb Bush becomes a presidential candidate by June 30. It last traded for 99 cents, up from around 85 cents in the days before he announced that he would soon make an announcement. At those odds, I’m willing to call Mr. Bush a candidate.

There are a few other interesting tidbits to be gleaned from related markets. Bettors finally believe Elizabeth Warren’s protests that she’s not running, and she’s rated only a 1 percent chance to declare in the next few weeks. As reported by www.freeheadlinews.com